BCA’s communications director Tony Gannon gives his predictions for tbe year ahead:

“Looking to early in the year, January generally brings an uplift in activity, but sustained prices rises over a number of months - such as those seen in 2009 – are unlikely to be repeated, simply because the market had fallen so far and needed to recover.

"A year later we are not in the same position and the recovery has taken place.

“However, there are suggestions that the late Winter and early Spring months could bring further stock shortages, which tends to suggest values could rise in Quarter 1 as a whole if the demand is there.”

Gannon added “If the economy continues to recover, that will give consumers the confidence to change their car. Signs generally appear good, but there is still a long way to go. Unemployment figures are high, although other economic indicators such as inflation seem largely under control and there are some stirrings in the housing market – although it is doubtful we will see much in the way of equity release by consumers to fund their next new or used car purchase.”

”There is a view that we are on an upward curve, but it looks to be very gradual and protracted. However, it is at least progress and some of the benefits will be felt in the retail motor industry, which should be good news in the wholesale remarketing sector. The new car market has some weeks of the scrappage scheme left, of course, but with VAT reverting to its former level in 2010 some commentators are suggesting this could depress the new car market and possibly the used as well.”

“Of course, one of the biggest unknowns for 2010 is the General Election. Whatever the result, there will be an impact on the economy which will in turn affect the used and new vehicle markets.”