Fleet managers should brace themselves for an increase in insurance premiums in the coming weeks.

According to a recent survey of insurers, 92% of underwriters expect motor insurance premiums for companies that run fleets to increase in the first quarter of 2009.

However, the stark warning has been dismissed by ACFO, which expects premiums to “at the very least” stay the same.

The BVRLA is also a little suspicious about the findings: “Any insurance company looking to increase its premiums would need to justify the increase by showing a corresponding increase in that particular customer’s risk profile,” said the association’s chief executive, John Lewis.

“We hope that the motor insurance industry doesn’t use this survey as an excuse to start raising premiums across the sector.”

Aon’s research suggests insurers are looking to make up for three to four years of offering competitive rates.

And now, with poor profits, the rising cost of claims and the tough economic climate, it says rate increases in 2009 are a distinct possibility.

“We are hearing very strong messages from insurers about rates rising but these have not yet manifested themselves into actual increases,” said Steve Redgwell, broking director for Aon.

“However, UK companies must be aware of and prepare for the imminent shift in insurance market conditions that could affect their cover and premiums.”

But, after speaking to fellow ACFO board members about the issue, ACFO’s chairman Julie Jenner dismissed Aon’s predictions.

“Speaking to fleet managers there is no indication that premiums will rise,” said Ms Jenner.

“Indeed their expectations are that costs will remain at the very least static or at the very best reduce.”

Greater investment in driver training and cheaper parts and repairs were just a few reasons why they believed a rise in premiums would not materialise.

A point not lost on Mr Redgwell, who added: “Underwriters are still hungry for new business and it is possible for companies to achieve highly competitive rates – as long as businesses can evidence that they are committed to and have a culture of good risk management.”

For many years companies have enjoyed the freedom and flexibility of a soft insurance market.

Companies could shop around for the best quotes, as underwriters were keen to write new business in a very competitive market.

However, the hardening of the market has been forecast for the last few years, according to Denny Payton, partner Corclaim, Harvey Ingram.

“When the market hardens underwriters will be more selective, not only as to what risks they take but also with the premiums they quote,” said Ms Payton.

“With this in mind, prudent companies should have taken time to make necessary risk assessments and actively reduce risk. If they have failed to do so, then the claims spend will not have reduced, which ultimately affects the premium on renewal.”

However, Ms Payton warned that for those fleet managers who didn’t take heed, the time will have passed, as next year’s premium will be based on a claims history which will have shown little or no improvement.

She added: “A proven reduction in claims and claims spend will not only help with premiums, but it will also help when it comes to looking at the insurance program itself.

“It is not as easy as simply opting to move away from a conventional comprehensive program to being self insured as many companies, particularly the SME’s, will not have the funds unavailable to make this a viable option.”