Used van values quickly bounce back, says BCA

Values in the used van market swiftly recovered in May after slipping in April for the first time this year. May recorded a month-on-month improvement of £122 to reach £3,595 – recovering the £71 lost in April and more. 

Values are now well ahead of the low point of £2,772 recorded last December, and are starting to approach last year’s market peak of £3,868 (recorded in January 2008). Values have improved by £823 since December and are only £43 behind year-on-year (last month the deficit was £313, year-on-year). 

Average guide values slipped for the second month running – but only by half a point, having fallen by nearly four points last month.

Following some spectacular rises earlier in the year, price growth appears to be slowing, with little variance over the rolling three months – certainly when compared to the first quarter where values rose by £620 – around 21%.

Demand for light vans has been strong since the turn of the year and with supplies well balanced, BCA remains confident that values should remain firm over the summer months. 

Similarly, performance against CAP has levelled off around the mid-90s mark, having climbed rapidly earlier in the year.

The scrappage scheme

The scrappage scheme is now live, but there has been no discernable effect in the used market in the short term.

Less that 2% of light commercial vehicles sold at BCA fall into the appropriate age category, which gives a steer on the relative dearth of vehicles available to benefit from the scheme.
However, as there is a perception that new vans are potentially £2,000 or more cheaper – depending on additional discounts available – there could be pressure on nearly-new values, which may radiate further down the used market.

Interestingly, while there were increases in value for fleet and lease vans and part-exchange vehicles in May, nearly-new van values fell back by £481 to £8,556.

BCA’s Duncan Ward commented: “Nearly-new volumes are very low and model mix will have an effect on value from one month to the next. There continues to be plenty of demand in the nearly-new sector despite an average value of more than £8,500 that looks relatively expensive compared to dealer P/X stock averaging around £2,000 and ex-fleet vans readily available at under £4,000.” 

Fleet and lease van values improved in May by £159 to £3,938 – up 4.2% – and are now just £43 behind year-on-year. Values are over £900 ahead of where they were at the back end of 2008. Values for dealer-entered part-exchange stock improved by £53 in May, equivalent to a 2.6% increase.