Whether the Fleet-market glass is half-full or half-empty depends on which statistics you choose to focus on. The optimists will point to the fact that fleet’s share of the overall market rose to 54.7% in January 2011 compared to 50.0% in January 2010. Pessimists will point to the fact that actual fleet sales declined by 3.1% in the same period. That will probably set the tone for the rest of the year – fleet share is almost bound to be higher in 2011, given the boost to retail sales in 2010 from the scrappage scheme. However, few are expecting any great progress in terms of sales volumes.

There is one other complicating factor this year. The profitability of private sector companies is actually not bad considering the severity of the economic slowdown, but the public sector has never been in worse shape. Of course many public sector vehicles have to be replaced, come what may, but councils are facing their worst squeeze since the 1930s and expenditure on vehicles has to be one target for cutbacks. Council tax payers will march to protest about hospital and library closures, but no-one is going to take to the streets to defend the right of a council official to a new car.

In terms of manufacturer performance, January largely saw a continuation of the trends from last year. Ford lost share and will be counting the days to the all-important new Focus (UK launch due in March). That will certainly be an interesting test case for company car buyers: Ford has made a big shift away from handling towards comfort, equipment and refinement and is betting its customers will approve. Vauxhall also fell, but there was so much distress marketing in the dying days of the old Astra and Vectra it is hard to know what Vauxhall’s natural level is in the marketplace (although it has to be said that some dealer groups we have spoken to are quite bullish about Vauxhall’s future).

Another putative recovery story has a long way to go. Fiat’s fleet sales have fallen so far, they are barely mainstream any more, being only just above Mini and a long way behind Land Rover. This year Fiat in the UK has to consolidate Chrysler and Jeep within the group, and launch Lancia-made Chrysler models. So, no matter how long your to-do list is this year, take comfort that it is still shorter than that of Andrew Humberstone, boss of Fiat in this country.

Author: Jay Nagley