Car, van and truck electrification targets but ‘no role’ for hydrogen

Four-in-five cars, three-quarters of vans and nearly two-thirds of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) on the road should be electric within 15 years, according to the Government’s independent climate advisers.

In order to achieve this, the Committee on Climate Change says that the market share of new electric cars would need to increase from 16% in 2023 to 55% by 2027, with electric vans increasing from 6% to 34%.

It suggests that electric vehicles (EVs) will be the main source of decarbonisation, with no hydrogen cars or vans, and “very little or potentially even no role” for hydrogen in heavier vehicles.

Publishing its new pathway to decarbonising the UK, the committee argues that the continued development of charging infrastructure will be key in increasing commercial confidence in electric vans, but further action to remove barriers to uptake is likely to be needed.

It welcomed the Government plans to restore the phase-out date for the sale of new petrol and diesel cars to 2030, but said ministers should also confirm the 2040 phase-out for new diesel HGVs, restore the 2030 date for vans, and consider including hybrid cars in the phase-out.

With the UK tasked with achieving net zero by 2050, surface transport is currently the highest-emitting sector in the UK economy. 

In 2023, surface transport accounted for 24% of UK emissions, 102.8 MtCO2e. But, by sticking to electrification targets, the committee says surface transport emissions should fall by 86% by 2040. 

Surface transport would by then account for 14.9 MtCO2e of UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and would be the UK’s fourth highest-emitting sector.

By 2050, it says that the sector can almost completely decarbonise through rapid electrification.

Interim chair of the Committee on Climate Change, Professor Piers Forster, said: “For a long time, decarbonisation in this country has really meant work in the power sector, but now we need to see action on transport, buildings, industry, and farming. 

“This will create opportunities in the economy, tackle climate change, and bring down household bills.

“Our analysis shows that there is no need to pitch action on climate change against the economy. 

“We will need Government and business to deliver the investment, but we are confident that this Seventh Carbon Budget offers a secure, prosperous future for the UK.”

Under UK law, the committee provides independent advice on how much the UK should emit over five-year periods, known as 'carbon budgets', and how it might get there.

Each carbon budget is a stepping stone to net zero by 2050. The latest advice is that by 2040, emissions should be 13% of their 1990 levels, for the UK to stay on track.

The advice is not policy, but the Government has historically accepted it. 

Matthew Adams, CEO, head of transport at Recharge UK, the EV arm of the Renewable Energy Association (REA) said: “It is now clear that the success of HGV decarbonisation in many cases after 2040 lies with electric batteries. 

“It is therefore critical that the Government include HGV charging infrastructure in its rapid charging fund and address rising concerns around grid connections to support the backbone of the UK’s economy, the logistics sector. 

“Without significant investment in public and depot-based charging, the 7th Carbon Budget’s targets will fail to be hit.” 

He added: “What underpins the transition to electric vehicles is the need for investment, which can only be achieved through clear and consistent long term policy signals. 

“We must move away from the chop and change of the last Government and move towards consistent messaging around the positive role EVs play in the transition to a net zero economy, improving our health, our wallets and our economy. 

“Government must therefore kick start a mass information campaign to raise awareness of the number of ways consumers can access an EV at low cost such as salary sacrifice and the growing second-hand market.”

Ken McMeikan, CEO of motorway services operator Moto, argues that expanding the UK’s EV charging network is an “absolutely critical” part of this transition. 

However, he said: “Delivering the charging networks required means addressing key challenges, including planning delays, power grid capacity, and land availability.

“We repeat our call for motorway service areas to be recognised as critical infrastructure and for planning regulations to be streamlined.

“Government clarity on grid upgrades is equally crucial, and we echo the CCC’s call for closer collaboration between regional and national policymakers. Without timely investment in energy infrastructure, the UK risks slowing down its progress on transport decarbonisation.”