The Government’s own advisers say its work on the 2030 ban is overdue

By Thom Groot, CEO and co-founder of the Electric Car Scheme

A few weeks ago, the Climate Change Commission (CCC) gave the Government the equivalent of a failing grade.

The CCC are not some think tank screaming for headlines - they are a statutory body directly tasked with advising the Government on its emissions commitments. Disestablishing them would require changing the law.

The “2023 Progress Report” was damning, accusing the Government of inaction and losing its leadership position in the global transition, particularly when it came to green energy.

The harshness of the criticism got the most headlines, but tucked away inside the lengthy report was a bit of work that the Government was “overdue” on - the Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate.

The ZEV is criminally under-discussed for how crucial it is - including by the Government. If you’re not familiar with it I’m sure you have heard of its endpoint, the eventual ban on new sales of fossil fuel cars.

Currently, that date is set for 2035, with an interim step banning non-hybrid fossil fuel cars in 2030 that often gets more press. But before we get to 2035, or even 2030, the ZEV is supposed to set a series of stepping-stones for manufacturers to meet, so they don’t just jump from 100% fossil fuel cars in 2034 to 0% in 2035, clearly an impossible task.

Instead of that cliff edge of 2030 or 2035 the ZEV is designed to give manufacturers achievable but tough steps along the way - starting with 22% of new cars being zero emissions next year.

Yes, next year. A lot of climate policy has the tendency to always be just outside of your current time horizon, a problem for later on when technology develops.

That was probably how the Government felt when it first proposed the ZEV back in July of 2021. But we are now just six months from 2024 and the ZEV is still not confirmed dead, alive, or somewhere in between, as the CCC noted.

This is starting to get ridiculous. The Government put out a consultation paper on ZEV design in in 2022 and decisions on it that year. They didn’t come.

Then earlier this year another consultation was launched, finishing in May. Since then we haven’t heard anything - despite the potential ZEV mandate supposedly launching in just six months.

That timeline does not give car manufacturers sufficient time to change over any of their car manufacturing production lines, let alone the supply chain changes they will need to make to achieve any targets set.

Given how slow the Government are acting on this, how can they expect the car industry to turn this around at four times the speed?

I’m a big believer in greening the country’s fleet. Transport is the UK’s largest source of emissions and the technology we need to address its emissions is already here - today’s EVs are incredible and are only getting better and more affordable.

Until recently the Government seemed to believe the same thing. Now I’m not so sure. It’s not like Government ministers are walking around talking down EVs, but there does seem to be quite a lot of inattention over the three separate transport secretaries we’ve had in the last year.

As Zac Goldsmith said as he resigned as a minister, it’s not clear that the Prime Minister really cares about climate change at all.

But it’s not all inattention - there is clearly a bit of pushback from the manufacturers who might have to meet the ZEV in play too.

At this point details are so delayed that they might have a point about not being able to meet the mandate in 2024. But we’ve been talking about this for years - there is simply no reason for the Government to be so late with the details.

This mandate will shape the next decade of automotive sales in the UK. It’s about time we heard more about how it will work.