Positive data on used battery electric vehicle values

Used battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were the best-performing fuel type for the second consecutive month, according to the latest analysis from Cap HPI.

At three years old, BEV values have increased slightly by 0.3%, or £50, while overall values only saw a slight decline, with a 1.1% average drop at the three-year, 60,000-mile point.

Over the 12 years since Cap Live was introduced, the average movement into November was a downward one of 1.3%, with the strongest year being a positive 1.2% in 2021 and the weakest being a 4.2% decline last year.

At the one-year age point, values dropped by 0.9% or £320, while at five years, the figure was 1.3% and at ten years 1.5%, equivalent to £170 and £70, respectively.

Derren Martin, director of valuations at Cap HPI, said:  “Overall, October value movements can be seen as a return to normal seasonal drops, a welcome and reassuring picture for the industry, particularly after last year’s tumultuous final quarter.

“Additionally, the volume of electric vehicles selling in the trade market continues to show an upward trend.

“September was the second-highest volume month, only slightly trailing the record month of July this year. However, BEV values remain particularly nuanced, with some, such as the Jaguar I-Pace and Vauxhall Mokka, looking great value versus ICE equivalents.”

When analysing BEV movements by price band, vehicles priced between £5,000 and £10,000 saw an increase of 0.7%, or approximately £60. Similarly, those in the £10,000 to £15,000 range also experienced a rise of 0.7%. For vehicles priced between £15,000 and £20,000, the increase was more modest at 0.2%, or about £20.

Amongst the BEVs that saw value increases were the Citroen C4, Volkswagen ID.3 and Nissan Leaf, whilst the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 dropped in value, along with the Mini Cooper and the Mercedes-Benz EQE.

Looking at all fuel types, Superminis experienced the most significant sector decline on average, down 1.4%, but this only amounts to about £150.

Similar 1.2% and 1.1% declines were seen in city cars and lower-medium models, translating to roughly £100 and £150, respectively.

SUVs have also been affected by the seasonal softening of prices; at three years, their average negative adjustment was 1.2%, or about £215.

Large SUVs fared the best with a 0.4% decrease, while medium and small SUVs had a 1.3% fall.

Up to four-years-old SUVs currently account for about 60% of all sold data received, and recent increases in the supply of several models have impacted their performance in the wholesale market.

Amongst notable downward movers are the Fiat 500X, Hyundai Tucson and Nissan Juke.

“With a return to a more predictable feel about value moves in the last two months, it looks like more of the same for the balance of the year,” said Martin. “However, as soon as our monthly values are published, potential pitfalls will arrive.

“At the end of October/early November, the clocks go back, half-term arrives for most of the country, and there is the Autumn Budget. All of these can potentially adversely influence demand in the used car market.

“There is underlying strength, however, with a shortage of supply and steady demand, so it is likely that there will be minimal effect from these factors this year. Indeed, if interest rates drop, this could well have a positive impact.”

Used BEV prices stabilise between July and October

Separate data from Indicata shows that used BEV prices rose by 0.6% between the beginning of September and early October.

More importantly used BEV prices rose by 0.1% over a three-and-a-half-month period between July and mid-October showing all the signs that BEV prices have stabilised in the UK after months of falling prices.

The increasing demand for BEVs has also resulted in their market days’ supply improving to 38 days, the best of all powertrains and the best in the 13 European countries covered in Indicata’s Market Watch report.

The only unknown, it says, is how many used EVs are being held in the wholesale market by OEMs and leasing companies.

Market days’ supply is derived from dividing the currently available supply of inventory by the average daily retail sales rate over the past 45 days.

Further signs of used BEV stability are evident when looking at the top three fastest-selling used cars during September.

The Renault Zoe was in first place followed by the BMW i3 and Hyundai IONIQ. These are at the lower value end of the market with dealers prepared to stock used BEVs at this level and only buying higher priced models when they have a customer order to satisfy.

As the end of the year approaches, manufacturers are reviewing their Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) performance, which may be influencing their decisions to support tactical sales.

Sales of very young used cars under one-year-old were 6.53% higher in September than in the previous month and 24.46% more than in September 2023.

Many of these young used cars joining the market are BEVs as manufacturers chase the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate target of 22% of new car sales being BEVs by the end of the year.

While new BEV sales reached 17.8% by the end of September, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), used BEVs accounted for 5.3% of September sales, rising to 10.4% on used cars up to four years of age.

“All the signs from our latest Market Watch report are that demand and prices for used BEVs are stabilising which means leasing companies and OEMs can breathe their first sigh of relief after months of prices falling,” said Dean Merritt, Indicata UK’s head of sales.

“There is a better balance of supply and demand of used stock in the market and the fastest-selling used cars are all electric. However, time will tell whether used BEVs have stablished themselves in the used market with dealers and consumers alike,” he added.