White paper to help fleets to operate vans for longer

Guidance for fleets choosing to run their diesel vans for longer has been published by FleetCheck in a new white paper.

The document explains how vehicle operator resistance to van electrification, coupled with increasing shortages and higher prices for diesel vans, is likely to result in substantially extended replacement cycles.

Barrie Wilson, commercial fleet consultant at the fleet software specialist, said: “There are two key trends in the van sector, we believe. One is that because of issues over range, payload and cost, van fleets are not electrifying at anything like the rate envisaged in the ZEV (zero emission vehicle) mandate.

“The second is that major manufacturers including Ford and Stellantis have said that they will meet the production ratios stipulated in the ZEV Mandate by reducing diesel van production rather than risk paying the extremely high punitive fines.

“The most probable result of these market conditions is that diesel vans are going to become in increasingly short supply and more expensive. 

“Yes, some fleets will start to electrify in response but the indications that we see across our customer base are that many will hang onto their existing diesel vans for much longer.”

FleetCheck is calling this development the “Havana Syndrome” with older vehicles kept continually roadworthy over decades by a high level of attention to maintenance – similar to US cars from the 1940s and 1950s still in use in Cuba.

“One of the key developments we saw post-pandemic was for fleets to extend their replacement cycles,” continued Wilson. 

“They are typically already a couple of years longer for diesel vans than before covid and there is now this possibility they could be stretched even further.

“This creates a range of issues for operators of which the most important are safety and running costs, but it’s also crucial to minimise the environmental impact of these older vehicles and keep them looking good to protect your corporate image.”

The FleetCheck white paper highlights four areas where fleets need to concentrate efforts – routine service and maintenance, defect management, record keeping and data collection, and budgetary pressures.

“There’s no denying that operating vans into probably eight years and longer will create significant issues for fleets and we use the white paper to examine these,” explained Wilson.

“Our view is that it is viable for operators but will require a high degree of effort and of course, fleet management software has a key role to play.”

The biggest obstacle to Havana Syndrome would be if the Government acted over a period of time to make operating ageing diesel vans unviable, he added

“If this does become a widespread and identifiable trend into the 2030s, it is probable that any government committed to reducing emissions would look to remove these diesel vans from the road through taxation,” he said. 

“There are various ways of achieving this. Increasing costs for diesel vans entering low emissions zones would be one. 

“Another could be higher vehicle excise duty on diesel vans, but this would need to be sufficiently high to make electric vans look attractive as an alternative. 

“The other potential route would be higher fuel duty on diesel but this would unavoidably also hit private motorists driving diesel cars and could be politically untenable.”