New LCV market records seven month of decline in July - Glass's

Andy Picton, chief commercial vehicle editor, Glass’s (part of Autovista Group)

In what has been a troubling year so far, the new light commercial vehicle (LCV) market recorded its seventh straight month of decline in July.

Despite full order books for the year, component shortages continue to hamper deliveries of new stock.

With registration levels remaining weak, the SMMT has downgraded its July registration forecast for the year from 328,000 to 307,000 units, a decline of 6.5% on its first downgraded outlook published in April.

As a result, the market is currently likely to finish 13.7% down on 2021.

There were 18,772 new registrations in July, down 20.7% on the 23,606 units registered twelve months ago.

Of that total, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) totalled 765 units (up 21.2% on 2021) and represented 4.1% of all new vans registered during the month.

Year-to-date (YTD) registrations of 163,106 units were 24.2% down on the same point in 2021.

YTD BEV registrations stand at 8,865 units and make up 5.4% of the overall LCV market. This figure is up 55.7% on 2021.

For the fifth month in a row, all sectors recorded declines in registrations.

Vans below 2.0 tonne fell 20.3%, whilst vans between 2.0-2.5t gross vehicle weight (GVW) fell 49.8%.

The 2.5-3.5 tonne sector – which made up nearly 79% of all vans registered in the month – dropped 11.2%. The pickup sector returned a 43.2% decline.

Ford retain top spot, with the Transit Custom registering 2,737 units in July.

The Ford Transit was second with 2,024 units, whilst the Ford Ranger finished sixth with 926 units.

Volkswagen claimed third and eighth with the Transporter and Crafter respectively, whilst a good month for Renault saw the Trafic land fifth spot.

The Peugeot Expert, Citroen Dispatch and Vauxhall Vivaro from Stellantis filled the seventh (626 units), ninth (543 units) and tenth (534 units) positions, respectively.

The Mercedes-Benz Sprinter claimed the remaining top-ten position.

Top five LCV registrations

YTD 2022		July 2022		July 2021
Ford Transit Custom	26,878	Ford Transit Custom	2,737	Ford Transit Custom	3,567
Ford Transit	19,806	Ford Transit	2,024	Volkswagen Transporter	1,944
Vauxhall Vivaro	9,848	Volkswagen Transporter	1,499	Ford Transit	1,758
Mercedes-Benz Sprinter	9,141	Mercedes-Benz Sprinter	1,298	Ford Ranger	1,485
Ford Ranger	8,618	Renault Trafic	964	Mercedes-Benz Sprinter	1,410

The shortage of components including semiconductors continues to hamper production, restricting supply and extending delivery times.

At the same time, manufacturers are ramping up production of electric LCVs as the industry looks to meet their 2030 obligations in conjunction with tighter Co2 emissions targets.

Used LCV market overview

Sales of used stock at auction declined slightly in July.

However, due to the lack of quality stock available, buyers had to pay more to take ownership with first time conversions 3% higher than in June.

The average age of those vehicles sold was a month older, but had more than a thousand less miles on the clock.

July in detail

Glass’s auction data shows that the overall number of vehicles sold decreased in by 1.88% versus June, and was 14.2% lower than the same point twelve months ago.

The average sales price for the month increased by 1.4% and was only 0.3% lower than July 2021.

The average age of vehicles sold during July increased by 1.0 month to 74.2 months, whilst the average mileage reduced for the second month in a row to 80,106 (81,198 miles – June 2022).

The latest average mileage is nearly 4,200 miles more than twelve months ago.

First time conversion rates for July rose for the fourth consecutive month, up from 71.4% in June to 74.8%.

Used vehicles observed for sale in the wholesale market over the last month rose by nearly 2.0% to nearly 42,000 units.

In the over £20,000 price range, there was next to no change with nearly 46.3% on sale.

Just over 38% were on sale for between £20,000 and £10,000, 12.1% were on sale between £10,000 and £5,000 and just over 4.2% for £5,000 or less.

Glass’s continues to monitor the LCV market closely and has an open dialogue with auction houses, manufacturers, leasing and rental companies, independent traders and dealers as well as the main industry bodies.

This information, combined with the wealth of knowledge in our CV team ensures Glass’s valuations remain relevant in the marketplace.

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