Market update: Speculation over 2030 ICE ban ‘puts pressure on RVs’

By Andy Picton, chief commercial vehicle editor at Glass’s

Registrations in the light commercial vehicle (LCV) market increased for the seventh consecutive month, with 26,990 new vehicles hitting the road in July – an increase of 44.2%.

Registrations year-to-date total 196,916 units, a 20.7% increase on the same point twelve months ago.

The continued positive performance in July – which outperformed the pre-pandemic July 2019 total of 25,862 units - saw all sectors except vans under 2.0t record an improvement.

Pickups recorded a 48.3% increase, while vans between 2.0 and 2.5 tonnes GVW and vans between 2.5 and 3.5 tonne gross vehicle weight (GVW) sectors rose by 227.4% and 29.3% respectively.

The latter at 19,111 units accounted for 70.8% of the overall market. Registrations in the vans under 2.0t sector fell by 40.9% as operators opt for larger and more cost-efficient workhorses.

After seven months, Ford hold the top two positions with the Transit custom leading the way, followed by its big sister, the Transit. The Vauxhall Vivaro is in third.

The monthly statistics for July show the Ford Transit Custom and Transit retaining first and second positions with the Ranger placing in seventh (1,010 units).

The Stellantis Group saw the Vauxhall Vivaro finish in third spot, the Citroen Relay in sixth (1,130 units) and the Peugeot Partner in eighth (988 units).

The Volkswagen Transporter finished fourth, the Renault Trafic and Master claimed fifth and tenth (908 units) respectively, whilst the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter secured ninth with 944 units.

Top five LCV registrations

YTD 2023		July 2023		July 2022
Ford Transit Custom	24,566	Ford Transit Custom	2,598	Ford Transit Custom
Ford Transit	16,787	Ford Transit	2,594	Ford Transit
Vauxhall Vivaro	10,693	Vauxhall Vivaro	1,974	Volkswagen Transporter

Battery electric vehicle registrations nearly doubled to 1,489 units in July (+94.6%), but still only account for 5.5% of the overall market.

Year-to-date, BEV registrations have reached 10,292 units, a 16.1% increase on July 2022 (8,865 units), but with a reduced market share of 5.2% (5.4% 2022).

As a result, BEV forecasts for this year have been trimmed from 7.4% to 7.1%. July saw Vauxhall lead the eLCV market with a 38% share, with 19% of all its production in the month being electric.

While the ZEV mandate is due to take effect from next year, setting binding targets for zero-emission van production, there is growing support for a lowering of those targets and a delay to the 2030 ICE ban until 2035.

Any delay in the phase-out is likely to be damaging in both the short and medium term, with many operators already struggling with the practicalities of adopting EVs into their fleets.

This is already having a knock-on effect in the used market, where speculation is breeding uncertainty resulting in pressure on electric van residual values.

Used LCV market overview

Greater volumes of used vans are entering the wholesale market. The large majority are over five years old and with mileages that make the vehicle unattractive to many buyers.

Vehicle return damage is more prevalent, with repair costs increasing by over 25% year-on-year.

Due to a shortage of parts and bodyshop availability, prepping stock is now taking between a month and six weeks.

Used values have softened across the board however, strong prices continue to be paid for ‘ready to retail’ stock.

Sales of electric vans have struggled so far this year, with most looking too expensive against their ICE counterparts.

As part of our ongoing monitoring of the used market, we have lowered some EV values, resulting in a better conversion rate for them.

July in detail

With summer upon us, the wholesale market has been noticeably quieter with many trade buyers reporting a downturn in business.

Sales have slipped nearly 10% over the month, whilst average sales price has slipped by 5.2% over the same period and by 13.5% on July 2022.

The average age of vehicles sold during July increased from 81.9 months to 83.4 months, with the average mileage of those vehicles decreasing by nearly 3.7% to 79,845 miles. This is 414 miles higher than 12 months ago.

Again, the used medium van sector was the most popular. These vehicles accounted for 31.5% of all auction sales, followed closely by the small van sector with 31.3%.

Volumes of 4x4 stock sold accounted for only 13.7% of all sales, but attracted the strongest average sales prices of £13,938, down over £4,400 on June.

Large vans covered more distance than any other model type at an average of 96,150 miles, a marked increase of nearly 5,500 miles on June.

First-time conversion rates for July increased by 2.9% to 74.6% overall, and sat 5.2% higher than at the same point 12 months ago.

This increase was reflected across all sectors with the medium panel van sector returning the best conversion rate of 75.6% (up 4.4% on June), while 4x4 pickups recorded an increase of 3.8% to 75.1%, large vans 74% (no change) and small vans 73.8 % (up 2.8%).

Used vehicles observed for sale in the wholesale market last month remained static at nearly 42,000 units. 49.1% of all vehicles on sale were valued at £20,000 or more, while 34.0% were on sale for between £20,000 and £10,000.

At the lower end of the market, those vehicles on sale in the £10,000 to £5,000 price bracket saw volumes increase to 12.5%, whilst those on sale for less than £5,000 remained at 4.4% of the overall market.