CAP to launch Gold Book in major valuation revamp

Automotive intelligence provider CAP is preparing to launch a major revamp of its residual values forecasting product used by many businesses in the fleet sector as an industry benchmark.

CAP Monitor will be renamed CAP Gold Book and will contain a number of key upgrades aimed at improving the accuracy of forecasting as well as providing greater detail and information behind changes to values.

CAP has admitted that the quality of forecasting used vehicle values suffered during the recession as evidence now shows average used vehicle values outperformed forecasts made at the time, and the company says it wasn't alone in making these mistakes.

New systems are being put in place to avoid such discrepancies as well as bringing in more transparency when changes are made to forecasts.

The revamp is being overseen by Dylan Setterfield, senior editor of forecasting at CAP Automotive.

For 13 years Setterfield had specialised in forecasting future residual values at GE Capital Fleet Services, latterly as senior European analyst, where he had oversight of future market value assumptions for all European platforms.

His role also involved reviews of RV setting methodology in several countries, with a focus on process optimisation aiming to deliver rigour and consistency across all forecasting functions.

He is no stranger to CAP, having a strong understanding of the business from the perspective of a customer.

He will also oversee an additional product called Gold Book IQ and will give customers the opportunity to access full details on how a chosen derivative of a particular model has been forecast.

Gold Book IQ has been developed in conjunction with the implementation of the new forecasting process.

A CAP spokesman said: "Previously when customers had a query over the reasoning behind a value forecast they had to contact CAP and have a conversation with one of our editors, and there could have been any number of customers with similar questions.

"Gold Book IQ will provide all the detail commentary behind our decisions, whether it's a new vehicle's first appearance in Gold Book or we've had to re-forecast values based on new information."

The new forecasting system brings with it some of the elements of Black Book Live, which launched in May 2012, where there will be rolling forecasts rather than any new information published at the end of each month.

Setterfield told Fleet News: "Customers will be able to set alerts for changes to certain vehicles, and there will be full commentary explaining adjustments. We will moderate forecasts based on how we expect the economy to be performing in the future and this will inform the valuations."

Gold Book IQ will include a forecast overview alongside Black Book history for the vehicle, RV peer analysis, images and full pricing and specification. It will be accessed through the CAP Connect online system.

Greater accuracy in forecasting the values of vehicles up to 12 months old has also been promised in Gold Book, which is likely to have appeal for daily rental providers when defleeting vehicles at less than a year old.

The spokesman added: "Customers have been asking for this for a long time and now we're in a position to provide reliable forecasts for these vehicles."