Electric vehicle (EV) residual value forecasts are moving closer to traditional diesel cars as the used car market becomes more accustomed to the technology, says Glass's.
In some cases, RV forecasts are already broadly similar to their diesel equivalent.
Rupert Pontin, head of valuations, said: "The residual value gold standard for EVs is the Tesla Model S. Its minimum 220 mile range means that its three year/60,000 mile value is around 43% - almost exactly the same as a well-established direct competitor, the BMW M535D M Sport."
According to Glass's, elsewhere in the market, EV values are also closing the gap on diesels. The Vauxhall Ampera Electron's 27.58% at three years/60,000 miles is not far adrift of the Insignia SRI CDTi's 34.56% while the BMW i3 extender Suite at 39.11% is just a few points away from the BMW 320d Sport's 43.46%.
"Clearly, there is still a difference here between EVs and diesels but there are signs that it is closing all the time," Pontin said. "Crucially, when the overall running costs of an EV are taken into account, factors such as savings on fuel mean that they may beat traditional models."
A major boost in the last few months, he added, has been Nissan's announcement that a new battery pack for the Leaf EV would cost 5,000 euros.
He said: "RVs of the Leaf are among the poorest of the EVs at around 29% at thee years 60,000 miles because there are quite a number around. However, removing the mystery surrounding the battery pack pricing took away a large degree of uncertainty from forecasting its RVs. While 5,000 euros is expensive, it is something that can be planned into a budget when you are making an RV forecast."
He believes that it is likely that EV RVs will continue to close the gap on diesels as used car retailers and buyers became more familiar with the technology. Critically, the battery power improving will mean a better real world driving range.
He said: "EVs of one kind or another currently account for about 2% of the market. However, if the UK is to meet its 2020 emissions target of 95g/km per vehicle, their penetration must increase quite rapidly. As this happens and they become a more familiar part of our daily lives, we expect EV RVs to firm up and stabilise."
Jason Smith - 18/03/2015 18:17
We have enjoyed a good switch EV at the university but having two campuses in different local authorities is holding us back! TfGM threw 24 charging points at us but Cheshire East are proving less fruitful and we have none available in Crewe.