Opinion: Winners and losers in new and used LCV market

By Andy Picton, specialist RV analyst at Glass’s

The new light commercial vehicle (LCV) market fell for the fourth consecutive month, dipping 3.2% in March with 51,221 new vans, pickups and chassis variants hitting UK roads for the first time. 

The new plate month of March saw demand fall across many sectors.

Vans > 2.0 - 2.5 tonnes GVW category recorded an 8.5% fall equating to 759 fewer units registered over the same month last year, whilst vans in the >2.5-3.5t GVW sector recorded a drop of 10.0%. 

This sector registered 32,025 new units – 3,567 units fewer than in March 2024 - but continues to be the most popular representing over 62.5% of all units registered during the month. 

Demand for vans in the vans < 2.0 tonne GVW sector saw registrations increase for the 13th successive month, increasing 60.8% to 1,585 units. 

Unsurprisingly, the pick-up sector recorded a 40.6% rise in registrations as operators raced to get their new double cab pick-ups on the road before the changes to benefit in kind (BIK) and capital allowances came into effect. 

Some 8,107 new pick-ups hit the road in March compared to 5,767 units in twelve months ago and made up 15.8% of all registrations.

Without this massive rise in pickup registrations, March’s levels would have been a lot lower and a real indication that many businesses are holding off from investing currently, in what is a highly challenging economic environment.

Ford’s dominance in the LCV market saw them take all the podium positions in March. 

The Ford Transit Custom registered more than twice as many as the second placed Ranger pick-up, who themselves outsold its sibling, the Transit as businesses raced to beat the BIK rule changes. 

Amazingly, at the end of the first quarter, sales of these three models have equated to over a third of all LCV registrations in the UK.  

Stellantis Pro One saw the Vauxhall Vivaro place fourth, the Citroen Berlingo sixth (1,671 units), the Peugeot Partner eighth (1,617 units) and the Peugeot Expert ninth (1,523 units). 

The Renault Trafic took fifth, whilst the Volkswagen Crafter finished seventh and the Toyota Hilux tenth registering 1,649 units and 1,385 units respectively. 

Top five LCV registrations

YTD 2025		March 2025		March 2024
Ford Transit Custom	14,346	Ford Transit Custom	9,257	Ford Transit Custom	7,809
Ford Ranger	7,147	Ford Ranger	4,301	Ford Transit	4,864
Ford Transit	6,929	Ford Transit	4,040	Ford Ranger	2,881
Vauxhall Vivaro	4,129	Vauxhall Vivaro	2,028	Volkswagen Transporter	2,773
Mercedes-Benz Sprinter	3,012	Renault Trafic	2,013	Mercedes-Benz Sprinter	2,089

 

Electric van registrations

Encouragingly, battery electric vehicle (BEV) registrations up to 4.25t GVW grew for the sixth month in a row. 

A 40.3% rise saw registrations hit 4,215 units in March compared to 3,044 units 12 months ago, representing a monthly market share of 8.2% (5.7% - Mar 2024) and a YTD market share of 8.3%, up from 5.5% a year ago.

In a revision to previous ZEV Mandate policy, LCV manufacturers who were targeted last year with ensuring 10% of all new registrations were zero emission and 16% this year, can now have added flexibility to balance the annual targets against each other and avoid fines by selling more battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in later years of the mandate. 

The transfer of non-ZEVs to ZEVs was originally in place from 2024 to 2026 but has now been extended to 2029. This gives additional flexibility to reward CO2 savings from hybrids. 

Existing CO2 test values for plug-in hybrids will continue to be used and not the revised higher results arising from the Euro 6e-bis test now being used in the EU.

There is now flexibility for vehicle transfers should a manufacturer overachieve on targets. For example, should a manufacturer overachieve against the LCV targets but under-deliver with cars, it can transfer those excess LCV credits to its cars to achieve compliance with the ZEV Mandate. 

One LCV credit can be exchanged for two car credits and one car credit exchanged for 0.4 LCV credits. 

Fines for those manufacturers not able to meet ZEV mandate targets will be reduced by 18%, from £18,000 to £15,000 for every LCV. 

Petrol and diesel LCVs can now be sold alongside full hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles until 2035, whilst small and micro-volume manufacturers will be exempt from ZEV Mandate targets. With BEV registrations at only half of the 16% target in 2025 currently, this announcement is good news. 

With manufacturers investing heavily in electric vehicle technology, offering over 50% of all van models in the UK as zero-emission, the Government must show their support by authorising a van-specific charging infrastructure alongside effective regulation to support market growth.

Battery electric LCV registrations up to 4.25t GVW

Manufacturer: March 2025		Range: March 2025		Manufacturer YTD EV Sales		YTD EV Regs as % of Overall Sales
Vauxhall	976	Ford E-Transit Custom	790	Ford	1,487	Dacia	100.0
Ford	956	Volkswagen ID Buzz Cargo	634	Volkswagen	1,284	Nissan	18.5
Volkswagen	634	Vauxhall Vivaro Electric	602	Vauxhall	1,250	Vauxhall	17.9
Nissan	312	Vauxhall Combo Electric	374	Peugeot	465	Volkswagen	16.8
Toyota	299	Nissan Townstar EV	312	Renaul	425	Maxus	14.8

Vauxhall accounted for 23.1% of all new BEVs registered in March. Ford took second with 22.7% and Volkswagen third (15.0%). 

Nissan were fourth with 7.4% and Toyota fifth with 7.1%. Places six-10 were taken by Renault with 94 units (2.2%), Mercedes-Benz 222 units (5.3%), Peugeot 209 units (4.9%), Maxus 183 units (4.3%) and Citroen 86 units (2%).

By range, the Ford E-Transit Custom accounted for 18.7% of all new electric vans registered in the month. 

Positions six-10 were filled by the Toyota Proace City Electric (257 units – 6.1%), Renault Kangoo E-Tech (237 units – 5.6%), Peugeot e-Expert (165 units – 3.9%), the Mercedes-Benz eSprinter (176 units – 4.2%), and the Ford E-Transit (166 units – 3.9%). 

The plug-in hybrid van market saw Ford, Toyota, Volkswagen and LEVC register 1,635 units between them during March. 

Ford registered 817 Transit Custom PHEVs and 385 Transit Connect PHEVs, Toyota registered 419 Corolla Commercials, Volkswagen 13 Caddy PHEVs and LEVC 1 VN5 van. YTD, 2,905 hybrid LCVs have been registered with Ford accounting for 65.5%.

Used LCV market overview

A good balance of stock and positive buyer activity has resulted in an increase in sales during March. 

Clean, low mileage stock continues to attract the fiercest competition and strongest prices. 

As a result, average sales prices have increased over the month. Stock with higher miles and exhibiting more damage struggles in comparison, selling for below expected levels. 

The supply and demand of stock to the used market was well-balanced during Q1 with Q2 set to see some seasonality, but overall, these stable market conditions are expected to remain in place throughout H1. 

It is only later in the year and into 2026 that values may come under pressure, due to the reduction in new LCV registrations during 2022 impacting volumes of 3-year-old stock available in the used market.

March in detail

Sales of vehicles at auction increased for the fourth successive month, rising over 2% on February. 

The average age of stock over this period decreased from 79.1 months to 74.8 months and was 4.1 months younger than 12 months ago. Average mileage fell 0.1% to 78,730 miles during the month and 2.9% over the year. These factors helped to boost average sales prices by over 7.3%.

Of the vehicles sold at auction in March, 76.0% were Euro 6 – up 0.7% on February. Average age was 55.3 months with an average mileage of 72,515 miles (70,698 miles in February). 

March saw more electric vans become available in the used market however, sales remained static at 1.68%.

Average age of BEVs fell from 64.9 months to 41.6 months, whilst average electric van mileage fell from 50,192 miles to 34,449 miles. 

Euro 5 stock made up the remaining 22.3% of sales, down 0.6% on February.

Medium sized vans continue to be the most desirable in the used market, with sales accounting for 40.1% of the overall total. 

Small vans followed some way behind with 25.8%, then large vans with 22.8%. 

Volumes of 4x4 pick-up sales accounted for 11.3% of the total sales, up from 8.6% in February. This sector recorded the highest average sale price at £13,434 – up 1.8% on the previous month. 

Large vans covered more distance than any other vehicle type at an average of 87,392 miles, up over 6,500 miles on February.

Overall first-time conversion rates increased from 73.7% to 76.9% in March. This was 0.5% higher than the same point in 2024. Broken down, the best conversion rate was achieved in the small van sector at 82.1% (up 4% on February), followed by the medium van sector at 77.9% (up 4%) and the large van sector at 73.2% (up 2.4%). 

A conversion rate of 68.8% (down 5%) in the 4x4 pick-up sector returned the lowest.

Used vehicles observed for sale in the retail market last month increased by over 5.5% to 48,000 units. 

Of these, 92.7% were diesel models, 2% were petrol, 0.6% were PHEV and 4.4% were BEVs. Some 36.6% of all vehicles on sale were valued at £20,000 or more, while 36.4% were on sale for between £20,000 and £10,000.

Those vehicles on sale between £10,000 - £5,000 made up 21.3% of the overall market, whilst 5.7% were on sale for less than £5,000. 

White vehicles make up just over half of all vans on sale at 50.8%, followed by grey at 15.6%, silver at 10.2%, black at 9.9% and blue at 6.5%. 

Average age fell by one month to 58 months whilst average mileage increased by 0.1% to remain at just under 57,000 miles.