Christmas traffic to peak on Friday

New research suggests a staggered spread of getaway traffic throughout this week, peaking towards the weekend as large volumes of everyday commuter traffic combine with people making leisure journeys.

Consequently, the a study of drivers’ travel plans and congestion forecasts conducted by the RAC and Inrix reveals that Thursday (December 20) and Friday (December 21) are likely to be some of the worst days with 2.5 million and 2.8 million individual journeys expected to be taken respectively.

Data from Inrix indicates Wednesday through to Friday will see some significant congestion on major roads, with drivers travelling on the M25, M6 and M40 all likely to face long delays.

On Thursday, delays of up to three hours are expected on one section of the northbound M6, while on Friday part of the southbound M40 could see drivers queuing for more than an hour and a half.

However, when it comes to pure leisure journeys over Christmas, traffic is likely to peak on Boxing Day when some 6.8 million individual trips will be made as drivers cross the country to see family and friends, followed by next Thursday (December 27) when 4.4 million journeys are expected to be taken.

Highways England, meanwhile, will lift more than 200 miles of roadworks in time for the festive getaway.

To help journeys flow more smoothly and to keep disruption to a minimum, it says more than 97% of motorways and strategic A roads will be roadworks-free in time for Christmas, meaning motorists and hauliers alike can get on with last-minute shopping and delivery journeys with as little disruption as possible.

Where it is safe to do so, roadworks will be lifted or suspended on England’s motorways and major A-roads by 6am on Friday 21 December until 12.01am on Wednesday 2 January (full list below).

Highways England’s customer service director, Melanie Clarke, said: “We’re doing everything we can to make journeys as smooth as possible for this Christmas getaway and that’s why we’re keeping more than 97% of our road network free from roadworks.

“We know that the Christmas period is one of the busiest times on our roads and we’d also like to remind people about the importance of checking their vehicle before setting off on their journeys.

“Simple things like checking your fuel and oil levels, tyre pressures and that all lights are working properly, can keep you moving and the network flowing."

The RAC says that anticipated jams will be compounded by extensive disruption to the rail network – both planned and unplanned – that could force more people onto the roads.

Strikes are likely to affect routes run by Northern Rail and South Western Railway, and Network Rail is planning extensive engineering work on lines running into major stations including London Paddington and Victoria.

RAC Patrol of the Year Mark Souster said: “The run-up to Christmas is traditionally a very busy time on the roads and for us as Patrols, and 2018 looks to be no exception – although our data suggests drivers are planning on getting away early in some cases and spreading their journeys across a number of days, which would certainly be no bad thing.

Inrix data scientist Joshua Kidd added: “Our data shows that compared to a normal day, Thursday 20th December will see the biggest increase in cars on the road.

“With most drivers setting out mid-morning, traffic will become heavier over the course of the afternoon and stay congested into the evening. But it’s not just those off to see family and friends - commuters, last-ditch shoppers and online deliveries will contribute to clogging the roads.

“Drivers are advised to seek out alternative routes to their destinations and use the latest technology for real-time updates.”

Expected Christmas getaway trips and traffic conditions

Date	Planned leisure trips	Worst times to travel	Best times to travel	Worst road for long delays
Wed 19th December	2.8m	3pm to 6.30pm	After 7.30pm	M25 clockwise from J20 to J28 from 3.30pm. Up to 80min delay
Thu 20th December	2.5m	11.30am to 6.30pm	After 8pm	M6 north J15 to J25 from 12.30pm. Up to 181min delay
Fri 21th December	2.8m	11.30am to 6pm	After 7.30pm	M40 south from M42 Warwickshire to J8A (Oxford). Up to 110min delay
Sat 22nd December	2.2m	10.30am to 4pm	Before 9.30am or after 7.30pm	M40 north from J8A (Oxford) to M42 Warwickshire. Up to 61min delay
Sun 23th December	1.9m	4pm to 6.30pm	Before 11am or after 8pm	-
Mon 24th December	2.5m	11am to 1pm	At other times	M1 north J21 (Coventry/Leicester) to J26 (Nottingham/Ripley). Up to 22min delay

Source: Data from the RAC/Inrix

Roads expected to be worst affected

Region	Location	Peak congestion from	Predicted travel time (mins)	Total delay (mins)
19th December
Greater London	M25 Clockwise J20 (Hemel Hempstead) to J28 (Chelmsford)	3.30pm	114	79
Greater London	M25 Anticlockwise J20 (Hemel Hempstead) to J11 (Woking)	3.15pm	86	58
North West England	M62 West J27 (Batley) to J18 (Manchester ring road)	6.30pm	76	48
South West England	M5 South J16 (Thornbury) to J19 (Portishead)	5.30pm	41	31
North West England	M60 clockwise J6 (Sale) to J19 (Manchester)	3pm	44	28
20th December
West Midlands	M6 North J15 (Stoke-on-Trent) to J25 (Wigan)	12.30pm	229	181
Greater London	M25 Anticlockwise J20 (Hemel Hempstead) to J11 (Woking)	5pm	131	86
South East England	M20 East J8 (Lenham) to J13 (Folkestone)	7.30pm	82	56
South East England	M3 South J6 (Basingstoke) to J13 (Bournemouth)	3pm	65	44
Greater London	M25 Anticlockwise J4 (Bromley) to J30 (London E & C)	2.30pm	54	39
21st December
West Midlands	M40 South (M42) to J8A (Aylesbury)	2.30pm	157	110
West Midlands	M40 North J8A (Aylesbury) to M42	12pm	84	35
West Midlands	M6 South J20 (Macclesfield) to J16 (Newcastle-under-Lyme)	5.15pm	58	33
West Midlands	M5 North J4A M42 to Ray Hall interchange	7.45pm	39	21
Scotland	M8 West J12 (Riddrie) to J29 (Paisley)	12.15pm	21	8
22nd December
West Midlands	M40 North J8A (Aylesbury) to M42	5.45pm	105	61
West Midlands	M6 North J15 (Stoke-on-Trent) to J25 (Wigan)	7.15am	104	59
South West England	A303 West Salisbury Road to A350	2.45pm	46	19
West Midlands	M6 South J20 (Macclesfield) to J16 (Newcastle-under-Lyme)	12.30pm	43	18
West Midlands	M5 North J4A (M42) to Ray Hall interchange	6pm	31	14

Planned national rail strikes and major engineering works this Christmas

Saturday 22nd, Thursday 27th and Monday 31st December, all day	South Western Railway	Services to and from London Waterloo
Saturday 22^nd, Saturday 29th December, all day	Northern Rail	Fewer than 30% of normal number of services running, with very few after 5pm
Sunday 23rd December to 2nd January 2019	Several	No services to or from London Victoria
Sunday 23rd and Monday 24th December	Several	No services to or from London Paddington
27, 28, 29 and 31 December	Several	Reduced service on some routes to and from London Paddington