Just one-in-20 fleets expect fall in car and van size

Almost a third (29%) of fleets expect to grow their car and van operations over the next three years, while 5% are expecting numbers to fall.

The figures, from the 2023 Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer, suggests the sector is in good health, considering tough trading conditions.

The overwhelming reason cited by fleet decision-makers predicting an increase is that their company is expanding (mentioned by 76%), but human resource-related needs (28%) and plans to offer vehicles to employees under salary sacrifice schemes (25%) are also important factors.

Shaun Sadlier, head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said: “While slightly down on previous years, the fact that almost a third of UK fleets are expecting growth in car and van numbers over the next three years feels quite significant.

“Overall, just 5% of those surveyed are forecasting that fleet sizes will fall, which is less than in 2022’s research findings and considering all that the fleet sector has had to handle in recent years – from the pandemic to production shortages – this underlines its resilience and core position in business transport.”

However, there are notable variances in growth rate forecasts when it comes to UK businesses of different sizes.

“There is greater optimism among smaller companies, our research shows,” explained Sadlier. “While 16% of organisations with more than 1,000 employees predict growth, 26% of those with fewer than 10 employees expect an increase in their fleet size.”

Further positivity can be seen in the research’s international comparison, where the UK’s growth forecast of 29% of companies was higher than both the European average of 23% and the global average of 27%.

“Looking at specific reasons why UK fleets expect to see growth - such as expanding or planning new activities, employee attraction and retention, salary sacrifice arrangements and car sharing - it is clear that predictions of higher fleet numbers are being prompted by an ever-wider range of factors,” continued Sadlier.

“Also, although it is not explicitly stated as a reason, the continued favourable tax benefits on electric vehicles is almost certainly a strong underlying reason, fuelling these increases through company car and salary sacrifice arrangements.”

To discover more about the findings of the 2023 Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer, read our analysis here.