Derren Martin, head of valuations UK at Cap HPI
 
While 2020 got off to a strong start with demand from Britain’s car dealers keeping wholesale values of used cars above the usual seasonal levels, and the strongest February since 2012, the market is now showing signs of weakness.
 
As you would expect, we are keeping a very close, daily, eye on retail footfall, auction attendance and prices in the trade and retail data. Today (23/3/2020) the values in Live are down 1.5% since last month on average, but there has been a marked change in the market since the beginning of last week.
 
There is the likelihood that demand will continue to decline, and with it, values in the short term. Our forecasting team is currently predicting values to drop by more than the seasonal norm over the coming weeks.
 
Our short-term forecasts for the coming months will be worse than otherwise would have been the case, as the effects of COVID-19 continue to be felt. At present, our longer-term forecasts for one to five years in the future are likely to remain broadly unchanged, as we wait to see longer-term impacts on new car registrations, especially following plant closures from many manufacturers. A fall in registrations this year could help support used values in the long term, and there are also a great many other factors which could yet influence values in various directions.
 
The automotive industry is navigating uncharted waters, and the coming months will provide an unprecedented challenge as the UK has to adapt to new ways of working, socialising and shopping.
 
To keep customers informed on a fast-moving market Cap HPI is reviewing daily data feeds that are received from trade and retail sources, and the changes reflected accordingly. The team of experienced industry experts is supported by data analysts and scientists who ensure that the data is reflected in all valuation products. Our Business Continuity Plan has been enacted and our valuation services will continue to function as normal.
 
Be assured that values are set by Cap HPI using an unrivalled breadth of data sources, big data technology and a team of editors who scrutinise trends and movements in the market in real-time. The team of experts is supported by data analysis and audit managers, who ensure the quality of the data.
 
As a call to action, I would encourage all customers to use the data and tools at their disposal. The market is changing daily, and situations such as this are the reason Cap Live was developed.

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