BVRLA forecasts fleet growth in 2022

The total BVRLA fleet is forecast to grow 3% by Q2 2022, according to the organisation’s latest Leasing Outlook Report.

As the leasing and rental sector continues its post-lockdown resurgence in the face of global vehicle supply challenges, BVRLA members remain optimistic about fleet expansion.

Gerry Keaney, BVRLA chief executive, said: “The resilience of the leasing sector is creating greater levels of confidence within the industry, giving us many reasons to be optimistic going into 2022.

“Despite ongoing difficulties sourcing new vehicles, members have still been able to make progress in electrifying their fleets to improve the sector’s sustainability credentials.”

The Leasing Outlook Report shows that industry confidence – up 108 points year on year – is expected to improve further next year as order banks remain strong in spite of extended lead times.

While the total BVRLA car fleet has fallen 3.3% year-on-year as a result of lower corporate demand, the fleet has been reshaped as uptake of zero-emission vehicles soared over the same period. This has contributed to average emissions of the BVRLA fleet reaching their lowest ever levels – 110.1g/km – thanks to battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV) making up over a third of new orders over the last year.

It is forecast that one in four cars on the BVRLA fleet will be either BEV or PHEV by Q2 2022, following the exceptional growth this year.

The van fleet is up 9.1%, according to the report. The current data shows that while the overall BVRLA fleet size remains flat year on year, the balance is shifting to vans due to factors such as home delivery continuing to grow as lockdown consumer habits have become embedded.

Keaney added: “To see the green credentials of the BVRLA fleet improve to achieve record-low emissions is incredibly encouraging. As well as the supply issues, uncertainty remains regarding residual values and long-term tax rates. That said, the sector is in a healthy position and continues to drive the industry towards meeting ambitious Government targets.”