Cox Automotive downgrades registration prediction for 2022

Cox Automotive has downgraded its full-year forecast for new car and van registrations.

In its best-case scenario, the company predicts the year will end on 1.62 million registrations, a 1.4% decrease year-on-year. This puts the market 30% behind the 2000-2019 average, and 30% down compared to the most recent pre-pandemic 2019 performance. It’s an 11% downgrade on Cox’s previous forecast.

The revised baseline scenario for 2022 sees the year end on 1.52m registrations - 8% down year-on-year, 34% down compared to the 2000-2019 average and 34% down when compared with the most recent pre-pandemic 2019 performance.

Cox Automotive has downgraded the worst-case scenario for the year by 5%. As a result, the company expects to see 1.43m registrations, a 13% decrease year-on-year, 38% down compared to the 2000-2019 average, and 38% down compared to the most recent pre-pandemic 2019 performance.

Philip Nothard, Cox Automotive’s insight and strategy director explained that the company’s revised forecasts reflect a resilient market. It is slowly beginning its post-pandemic recovery, but with a cautious and nervous approach as several headwinds potentially lie ahead.

“We’ve been consistently commenting on the sector's headwinds for some time, and retailers and manufacturers respond resiliently. However, we must be realistic about the reality of the situation; new car production issues continue to affect most manufacturers, and there is a considerable shortfall in vehicles entering the market,” he explained.

Nothard added: “Although we believe output will increase as time goes on, this will certainly not make up for lost vehicles. Therefore, it remains unclear whether we will ever reach the c. 90+ million vehicles produced yearly again.”

In Q3, the company predicts that Q3 2022 will end on 471,565 registrations, a 19% increase year-on-year, but 26% down compared to the 2000-2019 average and 20% down compared with the most recent pre-pandemic 2019 performance.

The best-case scenario for Q4, according to Cox, is 351,171 registrations, a 6% increase year-on-year, but 23% down compared to the 2000-2019 average and 22% compared to the most recent pre-pandemic 2019 performance.

It's a similar picture of the decline in the LCV market. Matthew Davock, Director of Commercial Vehicles, Cox Automotive, explains: "The UK's new light commercial vehicle market declined for the sixth consecutive month in June, falling 23% and rounding off a challenging first half of the year. A total of 144,384 new vans, pickups, and 4x4s were registered in the first six months of 2022, down by almost a quarter compared to the same period in 2021, amid the ongoing global supply chain challenges.”