New car market set to continue “steady recovery” for remainder of 2023

Cox Automotive is forecasting a 20% uplift in new car registrations this year as vehicle production recovers to meet demand.

The Cox Automotive baseline forecast for total new car registrations in 2023 is 1,92m representing a increase of nearly 20% compared to 2022 figures but still lower (-16.9%) than pre-pandemic yearly registrations.

The company’s H1 forecast achieved a 97.8% accuracy against an actual figure of 970,951, bolstering confidence in the full-year forecast based on various market scenarios.

Cox Automotive believes that the baseline continues to be the most likely scenario to materialise in Q3 and Q4. That scenario – which forecasts the sale of 558,803 vehicles in Q3 and 412,913 in Q4 - includes a belief that the UK’s projected economic recovery will remain on track and that the entry of new OEMs into the UK market will have a limited impact on pricing and volumes for long-standing OEMs. That will result in a slower-than-desired adoption rate by consumers and businesses alike.

Philip Nothard, insight and strategy director at Cox Automotive, said: “The new car market is going through arguably its most significant change in decades, an evolution driven by electrification, new players entering the arena and changes to how new cars are sold.

“This sector has faced numerous challenges over the past three years and the shoots of recovery that it showed at the beginning of the year will, we think, characterise what remains of these 12 months.”