Opinion: LCV new and used market update for October

By Andy Picton, chief commercial vehicle editor at Glass’s

The light commercial vehicle (LCV) market increased for the tenth consecutive month, with 26,342 new registrations hitting the road in October – a 17.7% increase on twelve months ago.

Registrations year-to-date total 284,321 units, a 20.9% increase on 2022.

All sectors except those Vans under 2.0t sector record increases.

The Pickup sector recorded a 41.1% increase, Vans between 2.0 and 2.5 tonnes GVW rose by 106.1%, whilst those vans weighing between 2.5-3.5 tonnes, recorded a 5.3% rise in registrations.

The 18,176 units registered in the large van sector represented 69% of all new LCVs registered during the month.

Registrations in the Vans under 2.0t sector were down by 20.4% v October 2022 as businesses move towards bigger vans to fulfil their requirements.

Ford’s domination of the light commercial vehicle market continued in October, with the Transit Custom and Transit in first and second places whilst the Ford Ranger was sixth (1,416 units).

The Mercedes-Benz Sprinter finished in third, the Volkswagen Transporter claimed fourth, whilst the Vauxhall Vivaro and Citroen Berlingo (760 units) from the Stellantis Group finished in fifth and tenth respectively.

The Renault Trafic was seventh with (977 units), the Toyota Hilux eighth with 869 units and in ninth place was the Maxus Deliver 9 with 783 units.

Top five LCV registrations

YTD 2023		October 2023		October 2022
Ford Transit Custom	34,301	Ford Transit Custom	2,841	Ford Transit Custom
Ford Transit	23,831	Ford Transit	2,148	Ford Transit

Battery electric vehicle registrations were down 20.2% to 1,362 units in October and account for 5.2% of the overall market YTD, down 2.4% on the same point in 2022.

Year-to-date, BEV registrations have reached 15,658 units, a 19.8% increase on the 13,065 units registered to the same point last year.

However, diesel vehicles still make up 92.2% of all LCVs registered this year. With the ZEV Mandate targets now set, it is imperative that the Government commit to retaining existing tax incentives for BEV buyers, approve driving licence derogations for those who wish to operate above 4.25 tonnes and importantly, provide a van specific public charging network that can properly support operators to want to transition to BEV.

With 20.9% growth in LCV registrations for the year so far, the outlook for 2023 has been revised upwards by 1.4% to 332,000 units (334,000 units – 2024).

Disappointingly, anticipated BEV registrations have been cut by 9.0% to 21,000 units or 6.3% market share for 2023. BEV registrations are estimated to reach 34,000 units, or just under 10.2% of the overall market for 2024.

Used LCV market overview

As the number of new LCV registrations has continued to increase throughout the year, so defleet volumes have risen as well.

With nearly 65% of all sales at auction now Euro 6 models, there is a widening two tier market and recognition that buyers are actively moving away from non-compliant ULEZ/CAZ stock.

The average age of Euro 6 stock is nearly 53.5 months, with an average mileage of just over 72,000 miles and an average selling price of nearly £10,850.

A third of all stock sold was Euro 5 or older, with an average age of 143 months, an average mileage of over 106, 000 miles and an average sale price of under £3,000. Used electric vans make up less than 2% of all sales at auction but have recorded a near 60% rise in sales over the last 3 months.

October in detail

The volume of sales increased by nearly 9.5% over the month, but average sales prices dropped by 12%, reflecting a higher level of samey stock at auction.

The dramatic decrease now sees price levels sit 15% below October 2022. The average age of all vehicles sold now sits at 83 months, up 7.8 months on September and up 4.1 months on twelve months ago.

The average mileage increased by 6.8% to 82,584 miles and sits at the same level as 12 months ago.

More medium vans were sold at auction than any other vehicle type, accounting for nearly 32% of all auction sales.

Small vans accounted for just over 30% and large vans 25.2%. Volumes of 4x4 stock sold accounted for only 12.5% of all sales, but attracted the strongest average sales prices of £13,149, down over £2,728 on September.

Large vans covered more distance than any other model type at an average of 91,559 miles, 1,700 miles higher than September.

First-time conversion rates for October rose by 0.8% to 76.6% overall, but sat 3.1% lower than at the same point 12 months ago.

Broken down, the best conversion rates were seen in the medium panel van sector at 77.2% (down 1.9% on September), whilst a conversion rate of 75.4% (up 5.3%) in the 4x4 pickup sector returned the lowest.

Used vehicles observed for sale in the wholesale market last month increased by nearly 3% to nearly 42,500 units. 46.7% of all vehicles on sale were valued at £20,000 or more, while 35.4% were on sale for between £20,000 and £10,000.

At the lower end of the market, those vehicles on sale in the £10,000 to £5,000 price bracket made up 13.7% of the overall market, whilst 4.2% were on sale for less than £5,000.