Opinion: Positive performance in new and used LCV market

By Andy Picton, specialist RV analyst at Glass’s

The new light commercial vehicle (LCV) market recorded its fourth consecutive month of growth as registrations rose by 10.5% in November. 30,300 new LCVs were registered during the month, the second largest for the month ever recorded. 

A total of 324,613 LCVs have now been registered year-to-date, a 4.1% increase on the 311,754 units registered to the same point last year. 

Demand was positive across all sectors except in the pick-up sector, where demand fell 20.4% and a reflection of a sector that has been in decline throughout 2024. 

Some 999 new vans < 2.0 tonne GVW were registered in November, a 128.6% increase on the same month last year. 

Vans > 2.0 - 2.5 tonnes GVW category recorded a 9.8% rise to 4,999 units over the same period, whilst new vans in the vans >2.5-3.5t GVW increased by 13.5% to 20,504 units. This sector continues to be the most popular representing 67.7% of all units registered during the month.

Ford once again led the way, claiming three of the top five registration spots and four of the top 10 in November with the Transit Custom, Transit and Ranger pickup in first, second and fourth spots and the Transit Courier in tenth. 

Stellantis Pro One saw the Vauxhall Vivaro finish third, the Vauxhall Combo fifth, the Citroen Berlingo eighth (1,011 units), and Peugeot Expert in nineth (861 units). 

The remaining spots were taken by the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter in sixth (1,353 units) and the Renault Trafic in seventh with 1,178 units. 

Top five LCV registrations

YTD 2024		November 2024		November 2023
Ford Transit Custom	43,252	Ford Transit Custom	4,335	Ford Transit Custom	3,266
Ford Transit	29,798	Ford Transit	3,360	Ford Transit	2,222
Ford Ranger	18,502	Vauxhall Vivaro	2,635	Vauxhall Vivaro	1,783
Mercedes-Benz Sprinter	17,158	Ford Ranger	1,683	Ford Ranger	1,624
Vauxhall Vivaro	16,791	Vauxhall Combo	1,416	Mercedes-Benz Sprinter	1,525

 

Electric van registrations

Battery electric vehicle (BEV) registrations to 3.5t GVW increased by 31.9% in November with 2,151 units registered compared to 1,631 units twelve months ago. This represents a monthly market share of 7.1%.

Year-to-date (YTD), 17,238 units have been registered. This is down 0.3% on the November 2023 total of 17,289 units. 

The BEV market share currently stands at 5.3% of the overall market, down 0.2% on 12 months ago.

Although the year-long extension to the Plug-in Van Grant (PIVG) has been welcomed and manufacturers continue to invest heavily in zero-emission vehicles, a lack of a van-specific infrastructure and effective Government support has resulted in potential operators lacking the confidence to switch to BEV in greater volumes.

November saw demand for BEVs increase for the second month in a row however, with one month of the year remaining, the overall market share of 5.3% is lower than last year and sits at just over 50% of the government mandated target of 10% for 2024. 

With expectations that overall sales will be no better than last year, the Q4 2024 Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) forecast for the BEV share of LCV registrations under 3.5t has been downgraded to only 20,000 units – a market share of 5.7%. 

The SMMT expect BEV registrations to rise sharply next year to 38,000 units and to 62,000 units in 2026.

The recent announcement that Stellantis plans to close the Luton van plant and move EV production to Ellesmere Port and ICE model production overseas, emphasises the pressure on competitiveness within the industry and a lack of enthusiasm for zero emission LCVs. 

With previous warnings ignored, a Government decision to review the ZEV Mandate regulations has been welcomed by the industry. 

More assistance is needed by manufacturers to research and bring the products to market that operators need, so that growth and decarbonisation can be delivered.

Battery electric LCV registrations up to 3.5t GVW

Manufacturer: November 2024		Range: November 2024		Manufacturer YTD EV Sales		YTD EV Regs as % of Overall Sales
Ford	656	Ford E-Transit Custom	554	Peugeot	3,932	BYD	100
Peugeot	419	Volkswagen ID Buzz Cargo	348	Vauxhall	2,419	Peugeot	15.4
Volkswagen	348	Peugeot e-Partner	270	Volkswagen	2,397	Nissan	13.5
Vauxhall	302	Vauxhall Vivaro Electric	267	Ford	1,880	Maxus	12.2
Renault	108	Peugeot e-Expert	149	Renault	1,361	Toyota	8.7

Ford accounted for 30.5% of all new BEVs in November registering 656 units. Peugeot were second with 419 units (19.5%) and Volkswagen claimed third with 348 units (16.2%). Vauxhall placed fourth with 302 units (14%) and Renault fifth with 108 units (5%).

By range, the Ford E-Transit Custom was top registering 554 units, followed by the Volkswagen ID Buzz Cargo van with 348 units, the Peugeot e-Partner was third with 270 vans, the Vauxhall Vivaro Electric fourth with 267 and the Peugeot e-Expert fifth with 149. 

The remaining top 10 spots were filled by the Ford E-Transit (102 units), the Renault Kangoo E-Tech (81 units), the Toyota Proace City Electric (55 units), Mercedes-Benz eVito (52 units) and the Citroen e-Berlingo (46 units). 

After 11 months, BYD (100%), Peugeot (15.4%), Nissan (13.5%) and Maxus (12.2%) are currently the only manufacturers to meet the minimum 10% ZEV mandate sales share target for 2024. 

Closing in is Toyota with 8.7%, whilst further adrift is Vauxhall and Volkswagen both on 7.1% and Renault (5.3%). The remaining manufacturers in the top ten, Mercedes-Benz (5.0%) and Renault Trucks (4.8%) still have work to do.

An additional 171 BEVs from Ford, Iveco, Maxus, Mercedes-Benz, Renault and Renault Trucks (37 units – October 2023) between 3.5t-4.25t GVW, were registered as part of the Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme (VETS) and contributed towards an overall monthly market share of 7.7%. 

Overall demand YTD has grown 1.63% on twelve months ago, with 18,773 units registered reflecting an overall BEV market share of only 5.8%.

The Plug-In hybrid van market is growing slowly too, with Ford and Toyota registering 698 units between them during November. 

Ford registered 509 Transit Custom PHEVs and Toyota 189 Corolla Commercials. YTD, 1,841 Toyota Corolla Commercial, 1,425 Ford Transit Custom PHEVs and 3 LEVC VN5 vans have been registered.

Used LCV market overview

The used auction market is ticking along nicely at present with stock levels, buyer demand and prices all closely aligned. 

Physical attendance at auction is on the rise as is the number of unique buyers purchasing stock. 

As overall market prices have reduced steadily over the year, so stock has become more appealing and affordable. 

Vendors also seem to be more in tune with market sentiment, resulting in first-time conversion rates rising nearly 1% to 82.7% over the last month. Buyers though continue to fight over the best examples, where minimum prep is required.

The number of vehicles sold during November fell 9.8% but was up over 7.2% on 12 months ago. 

With a better mix of stock and buyer evident at present, the average selling price increased by 3.9% over the month and although prices have dropped 23.4% year-on-year, remains 23.3% higher than in November 2019, prior to the pandemic.

Of the vehicles sold at auction in October, 76.1% were Euro 6 at an average age of 59.7 months and average mileage of 72,676 miles (73,030 miles in October). 

Used electric vans showed a slight improvement, with sales contributing to 0.9% of the overall market, up from 0.6% in October. 

The average age of these vehicles fell to 75.8 months from 81 months, with average mileage falling to 37,867 miles from 39,316 miles. Euro 5 stock made up the remaining 22.9% of sales, down 2.3% on the previous period.

November in detail

The average age of sold stock fell from 84.1 months to 83.3 months but was 5.4 months older than 12 months ago. 

Average mileage over the month also decreased, down 1.5% to 79,827 miles. This was also 0.5% lower than the average mileage for November 2023.

Sales of medium sized vans continue to outweigh all others at auction, accounting for 36.7% of all auction sales in the month. Small vans accounted for 29.8% and large vans 22.9%. 

Volumes of sold 4x4 pick-up stock accounted for only 10.6% of all sales – down 0.5%, but recorded the highest average sale price at £11,942, up 3.9% on October. 

Large vans covered more distance than any other vehicle type at an average of 87,171 miles. This was a drop of over 2,250 miles on the previous month and over 7,500 miles annually.

Overall first-time conversion rates increased for the second consecutive month to 82.7% from 81.8%. This was 6.9% higher than 12 months ago. 

Broken down, conversion rates across the sectors were split relatively evenly. 

The best conversion was achieved in the medium van sector at 83.4% (up 3.5%), followed by the small van sector at 83.0% (down 0.6%) and the 4x4 pick-up sector at 82.6% (down 2.7%). 

A conversion rate of 81.3% (up 1.1%) in the large van sector returned the lowest.

Used vehicles observed for sale in the retail market last month reduced by 0.75% to 46,175 units. Of these, 93.4% were diesel models, 2.0% were petrol, 0.6% were PHEV and 3.7% were BEVs. 

Some 37.2% of all vehicles on sale were valued at £20,000 or more, while 35.4% were on sale for between £20,000 and £10,000. 

At the lower end of the market, those vehicles on sale between £10,000 - £5,000 increased by 0.2% to 22% of the overall market, whilst 5.4% were on sale for less than £5,000. White vehicles make up just under half of all vans on sale 49.4%, followed by grey at 16.0% and silver at 10.5%.