Opinion: Strong new van market as demand for used stock softens

By Andy Picton, chief commercial vehicle editor at Glass’s

Registrations in the light commercial vehicle (LCV) market grew by 1.9% in May compared with the same month in 2023, marking the 17th consecutive month of growth.

There were 25,853 new LCVs were registered in May, with demand for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increasing by 3.5%.

In the strongest May performance since 2021 (May 2021 – 29,354 units), there was growth across all the main sectors except vans 2.5-3.5t Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW). In this sector, registrations dropped by only 0.8% (131 units).

The pickup sector recorded a 4.1% increase in registrations to 3,081 units, vans between 2.0 and 2.5 tonnes GVW rose by 8.1% to 4,477 units and vans in the below 2.0 tonne sector recorded a 55.7% increase (730 units).

Although a fractional decrease was recorded in vans with GVWs between 2.5t and 3.5t, the 17,042 registrations represented just under 66% of all units registered in the month.

Ford again recorded a strong month, capturing all the podium positions.

The Transit Custom, Transit and Ranger pickup finished first, second and third respectively, whilst the Transit Connect (1,013 units) finished in seventh position.

Following a strong month from Renault, the Trafic finished in fourth spot, the Volkswagon Transporter took fifth place and the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter finished in sixth registering 1,148 units.

The Stellantis trio of Peugeot Partner (855 units), Vauxhall Vivaro (827 units) and Citroen Berlingo (789 units) claimed the last of the top ten positions.

Top five LCV registrations

YTD 2024		May 2024		May 2023
Ford Transit Custom	17,185	Ford Transit Custom	3,189	Ford Transit Custom	3,323
Ford Transit	13,253	Ford Transit	2,505	Ford Transit	2,221
Ford Ranger	8,652	Ford Ranger	2,130	Vauxhall Vivaro	1,694
Vauxhall Vivaro	7,250	Renault Trafic	1,358	Citroen Berlingo	1,559
Mercedes-Benz Sprinter	7,208	Volkswagon Transporter	1,265	Ford Ranger	1,286

 

Electric van registrations

May recorded a 3.5% increase in new BEV registrations. 1,077 units were registered compared with 1,041 during the corresponding month last year.

This represented a monthly market share of 4.2% - up 0.1% on May 2023. Year-to-date, 6,877 units have been registered compared to 7,028 over the same period in 2023.

The year-to-date market share of 4.8% is down 0.4% over this period - way below the targeted 10% - and reflects a market unsure how to integrate BEVs into their operational processes.

With the recent announcement of a UK general election adding to the uncertainty, the only hope is that whoever governs the country moving forward continues with the existing plan of economic incentives for electric and hydrogen vans, along with provisions for a van specific and sensibly priced high speed charging infrastructure.

Only then will businesses begin to be encouraged enough to make the switch.

Volkswagen registered 220 BEVs (19% share of EV market) in May, the most from any manufacturer.

Second was Peugeot with 176 units (15.2%), third was Vauxhall with 163 units (14.1%), fourth was Ford with 138 units (11.9%) and joint fifth was Maxus and Citroen with 115 units (10%).

By range, Volkswagen registered 220 ID Buzz Cargo vans. The Peugeot e-Expert placed second with 127 new vans, whilst the Vauxhall Vivaro Electric saw their 109 new vans take third place.

Fourth was the Citroen e-Dispatch with 107 units and fifth was the Ford E-Transit with 83 units.

Year-to-date, BYD (100%), Maxus (14.4%). Peugeot (13.2%) and Nissan (10.3%) are currently the only manufacturers to meet the minimum 10% mandate sales share target for BEVs.

Vauxhall with 7.4%, Volkswagen (6.8%), Renault (6.6%) and Toyota (6.3%) are all moving in the right direction.

An additional 77 BEVs above 3.5t GVW from Fiat, Ford, Iveco, Maxus and Mercedes-Benz were registered during the month, giving an overall BEV registration total of 1,154 units for May.

Used LCV market overview

Due to a combination of increased stock levels, half term breaks and bank holidays during May, appetite and prices have softened with buyers bidding more cautiously.

With this trend likely to continue against a backdrop of a relatively flat retail market, any clean, low mileage stock remains an attractive proposition for trade buyers seeking a quick sale.

Harder-worked and higher mileage examples requiring more preparation before sale, have seen conversion rates dip.

May recorded lower volumes of sales overall, with Euro 6 vehicles making up over 79% of the total at an average age of 53.8 months, up 1.9 months on April.

Average mileage increased by 7% to just over 73,650 miles, whilst their average selling price was £9,025, down £925.

A lack of enthusiasm saw used electric vans make up only 1.2% of all sales at auction, down 0.2% on April.

The average age of these vehicles was 65.7 months, down 4.6 months, whilst average mileage was just over 30,400 miles.

The average selling price was up nearly £1,200 on April at nearly £5,375. Euro 5 stock made up the remaining 19.6% of sales, down 1.7% on the previous period.

May in detail

The number of sales decreased by nearly 11% over the month, with average sales prices decreasing by nearly 6.8%. This figure was 17.9% below May 2023 price levels.

The average age of sold stock fell over the month from 73.9 months to 73.0 months and sat 8.1 months lower than twelve months ago.

Average mileage increased by nearly 4.2% from 76,226 miles to 79,537 miles and was over 4.6% higher than May 2023.

Medium vans remain the most popular vehicle type at auction, accounting for 34.6% of all auction sales in May. Small vans accounted for 27.7% and large vans 26.1%.

Volumes of sold 4x4 stock accounted for only 11.5% of all sales but attracted the strongest average sale price of £12,850, up £36 on April 2024.

Large vans covered more distance than any other vehicle type at an average of 83,791 miles. This was up over 1,500 miles on the previous month, but 725 miles lower than 12 months ago.

First-time conversion rates for May dropped by 6% to 66.7% overall and sat 8.8% lower than May 2023.

Broken down, the best conversion rates were achieved in the small van sector at 72.4% (down 7% on April), whilst a conversion rate of 63.6% (down 6%) in the medium van sector returned the lowest.

Used vehicles observed for sale in the retail market last month increased by nearly 2.5% to just over 45,500 units.

Of these, 94.0% were diesel and 3.5% were BEVs. 41.2% of all vehicles on sale were valued at £20,000 or more, while 38.2% were on sale for between £20,000 and £10,000.

At the lower end of the market, those vehicles on sale in the £10,000 to £5,000 price bracket made up 16.6% of the overall market, whilst 4.5% were on sale for less than £5,000.

The average age of all vehicles increased by one month from 55 months to 56, whilst the average mileage increased by 1.4% over the month to nearly 59,250 miles.