Opinion: Why Chinese brands will disrupt the global car market

By Stephen Briers, Fleet News editor

Chinese manufacturers will become the biggest disrupter the global automotive industry has ever seen.

Too hyperbolic? But what about Tesla, exclaim the Elon Musk evangelists?

There is no disputing the fact that Tesla brusquely awoke legacy manufacturers who were sleepwalking though the climate crisis narrative with very few – notable exceptions to Nissan and Toyota – making any real effort to electrify their model line ups.

The shockwaves caused by the US carmaker with the launch of the mass market Model 3 in 2016, the world’s best-selling electric vehicle from 2018-2021, was the catalyst for the mainstream marques to accelerate their own investment in electric technology. In most cases, they have largely caught up.

But Tesla was a solitary manufacturer, albeit one whose boss had a feverish social media presence and the ability to woo investors. In China, there are scores of manufacturers designing and making exceptional cars offering style, high quality, excellent range and, crucially, low prices.

One of them, BYD, dethroned Tesla to become the world’s best-selling electric vehicle manufacturer in the final quarter of last year.

Given half a chance - subject to the possible imposition of hefty tariffs - Chinese manufacturers will bring electric motoring to the masses.

They have the products, the technology and the prices, with most electric cars on sale in China sitting in the £10,000-20,000 bracket.

How did we get to this point? For years, Western OEMs have been courting Chinese buyers, desperate to gain a foothold in the world’s biggest market.

Here’s some context: 30 million cars were sold in China last year, compared to just under 13 million across the whole of Europe (including the UK), of which almost 9.5 million were plug-in electric – 30% of the market, and up 46% year-on-year. That’s more electric cars than the rest of the world combined.

Within that mix of plug-in electric (or New Energy Vehicles – NEVs – in China), full electric accounted for 6.3 million sales. In contrast, full electric accounts for around 15% of the European market – or just under two million cars.

Also worth noting is the near-430,000 full electric commercial vehicles registered.

Massive investment saw legacy OEMs initially enjoy considerable success in China, primarily with petrol and diesel, working within national regulations that forced them into joint ventures with home-grown manufacturers to produce cars. It gave their Chinese partners the perfect schooling.

Initially, this resulted in a series of copycat models, some of which attracted lawsuits. However, they have learnt fast and invested heavily, many with support from the Chinese Government and regional provinces. They are now producing unique models that have arguably leapfrogged their Western counterparts.

Advanced battery technology is enabling 400+ miles, interior quality is at luxury levels and autonomous technology is putting a driverless future within reach. China is enthusiastically embracing AVs with the likes of Jidu Auto, a joint venture between Geely and Baidu, already in market after undergoing extensive testing.

Its Level 4 capable JiYue 01 model is currently selling 500 units per month and travelling in point-to-point autopilot around 31% of the time (rising to 48% in Shanghai).

With the largest manufacturers also owning the parts and component supply chain (BYD makes everything apart from tyres and glass, for example), speed of development is also eye-popping. New models can race from concept to production in as little as 20-30 months, three times quicker than the established norm.

There has unquestionably been a seismic shift in the automotive balance of power, and it is now arguably time for the European OEMs to start learning from the Chinese.

Some have already grasped the nettle, most notably Volkswagen which is now majority shareholder in a joint venture with JAC, owns a minority stake in a JV with FAW Group and operates a joint-owned car plant with SAIC (although the latter is under pressure due to allegations of forced labour).

Volkswagen has also announced a platform and software collaboration with XPeng that will initially result in two electric cars due for launch in China in 2026 after taking a 4.99% stake in the carmaker. It notes that the collaboration in development “significantly reduces time to market by more than 30%”.

Elsewhere, Stellantis invested £1.3bn to acquire approx. 20% of Leapmotor, with exclusive rights for the export, sale and manufacture of its products outside China, while Renault is in discussions with Li Auto and newcomer Xiaomi on electric and intelligent vehicle technologies. It already partners Geely on thermal and hybrid powertrains and makes the Dacia Spring (ninth best-selling EV in Europe last year) with Dongfeng.

The other key point underlining why Chinese manufacturers are poised to change the face of the global automotive landscape comes down to the simple matter of survival.

The Chinese market is exceptionally crowded with more than 200 manufacturers, of which possibly up to 100 should be taken seriously.

Despite the global advantages offered by low labour and land costs, pricing does not leave much headroom for margins when your rivals enjoy the same low cost base. They are simply not making much money, and some are already struggling including, most recently, HiPhi, which ended production in February (although press reports suggest it has secured new investment and will resume operations shortly).

Consequently, Europe and the UK look lucrative. Expect prices to be inflated by as much as £10,000 over the home market offer, but they will still be competitive – although mooted EU tariffs could close the gap with the legacy OEMs.

The UK, in particularly, should be happy hunting ground. With no native manufacturer brands to protect, and less likelihood of tariffs in a post Brexit trading environment, the market is truly open for business.

The evidence is overwhelming. Chinese-owned brands, such as SAIC-owned MG and Geely-owned Volvo, have enjoyed significant success in the UK in recent years. When added to models built in China, such as Tesla, those with a Chinese background account for around 10% of the UK market and almost 30% of all new electric cars.

Yet there are concerns, ranging from the need for comprehensive aftersales coverage and parts supply to data and cybersecurity fears to China’s human rights’ record.

All need careful consideration and, while those brands with the most advanced plans to expand into the UK and Europe also recognise the need to quickly set up dealer networks for sales and service, security and ESG questions aren’t as easily quelled.

Nevertheless, Chinese brands have already gained a solid foothold in the UK market and with more companies due to explode onto the scene over the next couple of years, the electric vehicle battle for fleets and retail drivers is only going to escalate.