Used LCV prices return to five figures in Q3, says Manheim

The used LCV market delivered a strong Q3, with van prices outperforming the first two quarters of the year, surpassing 2019 averages by 69%.

The period saw a return to five-figure selling prices, with Manheim reporting an average selling price of £10,003, £641 higher than in previous quarters.

Overall buyer appetite was up 33% on the previous quarter as both active buyers and bids per vehicle were on the rise: the average unit received 14 bids, nearly double the Q2 average.

Q3 saw a shift in stock profile dynamics, with the average vehicle age falling to 64 months, a two-month reduction on Q2 levels. Average mileage also fell to 79,206 miles for the quarter, down 6,266 miles on Q2.

Matthew Davock, director of Commercial Vehicles at Cox Automotive, said: “Q4 is gearing up for a strong finish in terms of price and performance – the wholesale numbers will reduce further as more fleet and rental customers focus on the busy Christmas period.

“Yet, the effect of the rising cost of living on consumer confidence will impact overall vehicle usage for home delivery, with large fleets particularly affected due to a projected drop in demand for home delivery.”

Volumes are anticipated to increase by as much as 28% more than 2022 during Q1 however, as more rental and fleet volumes become apparent, providing buyers with choice.

The average return miles are expected to reach new record highs next year too; the impact from low supply and continuous vehicle extensions will affect both age and mileage, with as much as 72% of catalogue entries due to be in excess of 100,000 miles (currently stands at 52%). As the acceleration to EV LCV’s is clear, five years and 125,000 could be be the new norm for LCV’s as one more diesel vehicle cycle is predicted with many fleet, rental and leasing companies before the 2035 deadline.

Davock added: “As we see mileages increase, average damage returns will also rise, resulting in additional pressure on average selling prices in Q1 as record levels of older vans hit the wholesale market. Based on the new age and mileage dynamics, average selling prices could drop by as much as 16% in 2023. That said, we’re confident the market will maintain the steady trajectory it has been on throughout the past year for Euro6 used, however, more pressure will be applied on Euro5 van product as the Ultra Low Emission Zone and Clean Air Zones rollout continues to gather pace.”