Steve Jackson, chief car editor at Glass's, looks at trends in the new car market.

The April SMMT data continues to show the trend of record increases in registrations in the new car market with 185,778 vehicles recorded during the month. This is the 38th consecutive month of growth in the new car market with a rise of 5.1% on April 2014, demonstrating the best April registration performance since 2005.

Year to date registrations now stand at 920,336 units, up on the equivalent period for 2014 of 864,942 units representing a 6% increase. Once again it is worth mentioning that there is still some question over what the real sales level is from these registration figures.

In terms of the market sectors the largest increase in registrations during April 2015 was once again the fleet sector with an increase in volume of 9.0% at 93,095 units over the 85,447 units in April 2014. Despite what was an environment of political uncertainty prior to the May General Election, the fleet market has continued to grow, demonstrating again the good feel factor in the UK economy and consumer confidence. In terms of overall registrations year to date, the fleet market is up 13.4% from 394,992 units to 447,773 units on the equivalent period for 2014 and represents 48.7% of the overall registrations year to date, up 3% on the same period for 2014. Although the private market is up 2.7% on 2014 it represents a lower market share, although on a higher unit registration number for the equivalent period 2014. Once again the business market has been a loser with April 2015 registrations down on April 2014 at 6,703 vehicles, representing a 12.4% reduction on April 2014 and a 9.1% year to date reduction from 38,560 registrations to 35,062 for 2014.

By fuel type the largest increase is again attributed to the Alternative Fuel Sector which recorded a stunning 70.0% increase over the same period in 2014. Year to date, that takes the Alternative Fuel registration figures to 25,798 registrations and a 2.8% market share up on the 1.8% market share by 1% for the equivalent period in 2014. The increase on the alternative fuels figure is again at the expense of the diesel registration figure which fell slightly for the month of April and is down from 49.2% for the equivalent period 2014 to 48.3% in April 2015. Petrol registrations were marginally down for April 2015 at 46.4% down from 46.9% in April 2014. Year to date petrol registrations for 2015 are exactly the same as 2014 at 48.9% of total registrations.

The top three best-selling models for April were once again topped by the Ford Fiesta followed by the Ford Focus and then VW Golf. It is worth noting that the fourth best seller in April, the Vauxhall Corsa, is still showing as the second best seller year to date. Whilst not in the top ten year to date, Mini came in as the tenth best-selling vehicle in April 2015.

In summary, the 38th consecutive month of growth in registrations raises concern over the number of actual registrations in relation to real sales. The element of push rather than pull will deliver registration results but will inevitably feed through to used vehicle pricing. However a continued growth in Fleet sales remains encouraging for the UK economy and the economic outlook.

Wholesale Activity

Consecutive record registrations in the new car market has been both good for the manufacturers and the franchised network, with at least two dealer groups joining the £1 billion club in turns of turnover in recent weeks and many groups reporting improved turnover and profitability. However, with this increase in registrations and the addition of late low mileage vehicles on the forecourt, some dealer groups have found it challenging to find space for the additional older vehicle to service the more traditional used vehicle market.

The wholesale market is still seeing higher levels of used vehicle stock following on from record new vehicle record registrations a few years ago and the continued increased sales activity in both the private and fleet sales sectors. Fleet vendors are seeing more vehicles coming back than in the earlier part of this year with a combination of the big fleet vendors, dealer groups and captive finance organisations heading up the list of available vehicles for sale. Auction centres are reporting higher levels of available stock and inventory with larger sales entries in some parts of the country and some vendors adding additional sales to their weekly sales program. In addition we have seen again a significant increase in the older stock both available and sold in the wholesale market. Buyers are seen to be a little more selective when bidding and are buying on both condition and specification. It is important to recognise that more vehicles have been sold in the wholesale market this year than in the equivalent period for 2014.

Disposal Managers have had to reconsider their position after a very good start to the year in terms of disposal prices as more vehicles have come back to the market. Remarketing partners are having to work harder to help clear the building stock and keep the days to sale under control. There are, however, some vendors chasing prices higher than the market is prepared to pay in the current environment as they chase a value that is not reflective of the true market.

Prices have been trending downwards as can be seen from the tables below, in line with increased volumes of vehicles entering the wholesale market compared with the same period 2014.

This trend has not been limited to the mainstream market categories and also includes the premium market categories, although we have seen a small and expected upward movement in convertible values in line with warmer weather and the promise of a good summer.

June Guide Values

Once again we have seen prices fall during the month of May as de-fleet volumes and part exchanges in the wholesale market have increased as predicted by Glass some months ago. The record new car registrations and increased de-fleet activity will continue to push more vehicles into the wholesale market at a level greater than in the same period last year. Therefore, values for this edition of the data reflect this with movements in the region of 3% downwards, although convertibles have seen some models increase in value.

 

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