New LCV market declines 18.4% in October

Andy Picton, chief commercial vehicle editor, Glass’s (part of Autovista Group)

The UK’s light commercial vehicle (LCV) market declined 18.4% in October, with registrations for the month at their lowest since 2012 and 16.5% below the five-year pre-pandemic average of 26,799 units.

There were 22,386 new registrations in October, down from 27,420 units 12 months ago. Of those, 7.6% or 1,706 were battery electric vehicles (BEVs).

Year-to-date (YTD) registrations of 235,962 units is 19.9% down on the same point in 2021. YTD BEV registrations stand at 13,065 units and make up 5.5% of the overall LCV market. This figure is up 52.9% on 2021.

Compared with October 2021, all van sectors recorded declines in registrations. Vans below 2.0 tonne sector fell 80.7%, vans between 2.0-2.5t gross vehicle weight (GVW) declined 50.7%, whilst vans in the 2.5-3.5 tonne sector – which made up 77.1% of all vans registered in the month - recorded a 7.6% drop.

A welcome surprise saw Pickup registrations return a 27.8% increase.

Looking at specific model ranges, Ford took the top two places, with the Transit Custom and Transit, respectively. The Ford Ranger was fifth whilst the Transit Connect was tenth with 716 units registered.

The German duo of Volkswagen Transporter and Mercedes-Benz Sprinter claimed third and fourth spots, whilst the Peugeot Expert (1,011 units), Vauxhall Vivaro (992 units) and Vauxhall Movano (752 units) from Stellantis were seventh, eighth and ninth.

The remaining top 10 position was claimed by the Renault Trafic in sixth, registering 1,048 units. The Vauxhall Vivaro-e remains the best-selling electric van with 3,254 units registered YTD, with Stellantis as a group registering over 70% of all electric vans in the medium van sector.

Ford dominate the large electric van market with nearly 50% of all registrations YTD, whilst Stellantis have registered nearly 50% of all small electric vans.

Top five LCV registrations

Despite strong order books for 2022, operating conditions remain a challenge.

Manufacturers continue to invest in zero emission van models and as a result, growing numbers of van buyers are opting for these green alternatives, recognising that they can lower their carbon footprint whilst benefitting from lower taxation, purchase incentives and urban zone charge exemptions.

However, with rising costs and component shortages continuing to hamper the supply of new vehicles into the UK market, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has again revised its 2022 van registration forecast down, this time to 290,000 units.

UK van registrations for the year are currently nearly 20% lower than the same point last year, with two months left to run.

This latest forecast is the fourth consecutive downward quarterly forecast revision endorsing the difficulties in the marketplace and confirms any recovery of the new LCV market remains some way off.

Used LCV market overview

The used market has come under pressure during 2022 as a lack of new vehicle supply and resulting fleet extensions has reduced availability in the used market.

Older and higher mileage vehicles are starting to dominate the auctions however, the overall market is showing good signs of resilience as first time conversion rates increase for the fifth month in a row.

October in detail

Glass’s data shows that the overall number of vehicles sold at auction increased by 1.7% versus September, but was 11% lower than the same point twelve months ago.

The most popular sector was Medium Van accounting for 38.2% of all auction sales, whilst stock in the 4x4 sector attracted the strongest average sales prices - £14,200.

The average age of vehicles sold during October increased by 0.6 months to 78.9 months, whilst the average mileage increased to 82,541 miles from 80,953 in September.

The latest average mileage is nearly 900 miles more than twelve months ago.

First time conversion rates for the month of October improved by 4% to 79.7%. The small van sector returned the best conversion rate at 84% (up 4.2% on September), whilst the weakest performing was the 4x4 sector at 72.6%, a 1.3% improvement over the month.

Used vehicles observed for sale in the wholesale market over the last month dropped by 0.25% to just over 40,500 units. An increased number of just over 47% of all vehicles were on sale for £20,000 or more, whilst 36.7% were on sale for between £20,000 and £10,000.

At the lower end of the market, the volumes remained relatively unchanged with 12.9% of vehicles on sale between £10,000 and £5,000 and 4.0% on sale for £5,000 or less.

Glass’s continues to monitor the LCV market closely and has an open dialogue with auction houses, manufacturers, leasing and rental companies, independent traders and dealers as well as the main industry bodies.

This information, combined with the wealth of knowledge in our commercial vehicle team ensures Glass’s valuations remain relevant in the marketplace.