Fleet growth predicted by just a quarter of businesses

Just over a quarter of car and van fleets are predicting growth within the next three years, according to new results from the 2025 Arval Mobility Observatory Fleet and Mobility Barometer.

The 28% of respondents who say they expect their vehicle numbers to rise is a fall on the 38% reported in 2024. 

However, almost two-thirds (65%) of fleets say the situation will be stable and just one-in-16 fleets - some 6% - predict a decrease.

John Peters, head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said: “We believe that these figures reflect some concerns about the general strength of the economy among businesses but it should also be recognised that having more than a quarter of fleets expecting to expand remains a positive outlook, and that the potential for contraction is seen to be very limited.

“It’s also interesting to note that these results are slightly better than the international position, which shows 24% growth and 7% contraction for the European average, and 27% growth and 7% contraction globally. It seems that UK fleets are feeling slightly more optimistic than their counterparts overseas.”

The UK findings for cars alone are more diverse than combined cars and vans with a 34% growth and a 12% decrease. 

These are more extreme than the European (27% growth and 8% decrease) and global figures (29% and 8%) and perhaps suggest there is both more optimism and pessimism among UK car operators.

Additionally, the research shows slight variations when it comes to UK businesses of different sizes. There is more optimism among both the largest companies, who foresee a 30% growth and 3% contraction, and the smallest, who predict 29% growth and 6% contraction, compared to medium sized fleets at 26% growth and 8% contraction.

Peters said: “The figures remain broadly positive across companies of different sizes, with fleets that are predicting growth and stability substantially outnumbering those who foresee any reduction in vehicle numbers. Again, they suggest a moderately optimistic mood.”

Looking at specific factors behind why UK fleets expect to see expansion, by far the most popular at 78% is that their company is growing or planning new activities. 

This is a slight fall from 81% last year, perhaps again reflecting the more cautious economic outlook. 

However, almost half (47%) see fleet vehicles as a key employee attraction and retention tool, up from 38% last year and 28% in 2023. 

Peters explained: “These are strong increases and show a growing awareness of the role of the company car in human resources terms at a time when finding and keeping the best people for your business remains a challenge.

“Building on this, growth can also be seen in the percentages who intend to propose vehicles to employees with no current company car eligibility such as salary sacrifice arrangements (43%, up from 37%), and car sharing (43%, up from 35%). 

“Again, this is suggestive of an increased role for the car as a benefit and probably linked to higher awareness and adoption of salary sacrifice initiatives.”